Biosurveillance of Meningococcal Infection in Ukraine, 43 Years of Survey: Spatial and Temporal Dynamics Models

Abstract

Meningococcal disease in Ukraine represents an important cause of mortality mostly among the child population of less than five-year old. The present study illustrates the advancement on understanding of Meningococcal epidemiology across the national level by using20 years of data provided by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine on a constant survey of the disease. This unique set of data includes: demography (census); disease incidence from 1973 to 2015 (i.e., purulent meningitis etiologic diagnostic); Meningococcal disease mortality; anonymized demographic data (sex, age, leaving area/city/village); Comparative etiology of purulent meningitis; serogroups of invasive meningococcal disease; carriers prevalence; a set of clinical data (meningitis, meningococcemia, nasopharyngitis, etc.); and a set of environmental data (season, etc.). The dynamic of the disease is described for over the past 20-year period of time including incidence, prevalence, spatial distribution, seasonality, and risk factors. Existing state of the art of meningococcal infection epidemiology is presented for the all country. Ultimately, time series analysis of record and spatial distribution over such a long period of time supported the development of original construct of various models encompassing risk and vulnerability, and ways to improve epidemiological surveillance, and develop vaccination strategies in country.