Modern demographic trends in Ukraine as a ground for realization of prevention strategies

Abstract

Introduction: The data of the world statistics show that the process of demographic ageing becomes significant in modern conditions, and the number of elderly people annually increases by 3%. Owing to the global tendencies for ageing, the health care and social security systems are facing important challenges to ensure healthy lives and promote the well-being for this segment of population, provide affordable and quality medical care according to needs. The aim: Establishing modern peculiarities and trends of medical and demographic situation in Ukraine in the context of ageing population in order to substantiate medical and preventive measures Materials and methods: According to the data of the State Service of Statistics of Ukraine of the Ministry of Public Health for 1990-2017 the tendencies of medical and demographic characteristics of the population of Ukraine have been identified. The national medical and demographic indicators have been compared with the indicators of the countries of WHO European Region according to the data of the European Database “Health for everybody”. Using the least squares method, a forecast of the Ukrainian population and its age structure for the period up to 2030 has been made. Review: A tendency for Ukrainian population decline by 18,1% over the course of 1990-2017, which is caused by, along with other reasons, decrease in population birth rate by 25,4% and increase in mortality by 19,8%, has been identified. A steady tendency for a decline in the proportion of children’s population up to the age 14 years inclusive for the twenty-seven-year period from 21,5% till 15,5%, and for an increase in the proportion of population aged more than 60 years from 18,3 till 22,9% has been detected. The share of people over 65 in the age structure of population has increased from 12,0% till 16,5%. The analysis of regional indicators confirms that there are unfavorable demographic tendencies in the southeastern, northeastern and central provinces, and more favorable tendencies in the provinces of the West Region of the country. The proportion of children’s population up to the age 14 years inclusive was in Ukraine close to the indicator in the countries of European Union and less than the average in WHO European Region (17,8%), the proportion of people over 65 - close to European regional indicator (15,5%) and less than the indicator in the countries of European Union (19,0%). A forecast of the population and its age structure up to 2030 has been made, according to which less than 40 million will live in Ukraine, and the proportion of persons over 65 years will reach 19,1%. Conclusions: The tendencies for Ukrainian population decline and changes in its age structure towards ageing make it necessary to take measures to prevent negative medical and demographic trends and provide conditions for healthy ageing, to increase the affordability and quality of medical care, including for persons of senior age groups, and improve the work of health care facilities on prophylaxis of diseases.