Results of analysis and forecasting of the main financial indicators of the health insurance market development in Ukraine

Abstract

In recent years Ukraine against the background of systemic crisis trying to reform socially-oriented areas of society, including voluntary health insurance, which must combine market and social burdens. Under these conditions, an important scientific and practical research is forecasting financial indicators of domestic insurance companies. Aim. Conducting analysis and forecasting of the basic indicators that characterize the financial state of development of the domestic health insurance market. Materials and methods. Research materials were selected from the official websites of the National Commission which carry out state markets regulation of financial services and the League of Insurance Organizations of Ukraine for 2009–2018 years. We used historical, analytical and comparative, systematic, logical, hypothetical-deductive, mathematical and statistical methods. Results. To forecast the financial indicators of the health insurance market in Ukraine (gross insurance premiums and payments; operations transferred to reinsurance, including non-residents; net insurance premiums and payments) for 2019–2020 years; the time interval was set from 2009 year. According to the results of the calculations, we obtained regression models for different financial indicators (6 models). With the help of the selected mathematical tools, the main financial indicators of the market development for 2019–2020 years were forecasted. The analysis of the data revealed that the highest value growth rate (%) in 2020 year will be characteristic of reinsurance operations, including those transferred to non-residents (49.06 %) and the lowest - to gross insurance payments (14,41 %). It is established that the indicator of net insurance payments since 2010 year has been steadily decreasing (from 78.19 %), and according to the forecasted data in 2019 year it may be equal to 46.77 %, and in 2020 year – 44.98 %, the trend will continue to decrease. However, this indicator since 2016 year (53.9 %) and the data forecast for 2019–2020 years are in the regulatory range (from 30.0 % to 60.0 % for different types of insurance activities).